PR22.011 OV tussen station Den Dolder en Soesterberg

However, it is still of particular importance to pay attention to the needs of this group, as the Green Shuttle project is aimed at them in the first phase of implementation. In conclusion, the Green Shuttle project involves many stakeholder groups that need to be involved in the implementation of the project in different ways to ensure a successful realization. The most important stakeholders are the Entrepreneurial Network Soesterberg (client), the cooperation of the municipalities of Zeist and Soest with the province of Utrecht (Hart van de Heuvelrug) and the owner of the former airbase Soesterberg Utrecht Landschap.

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4. Project context History: The area is very important from a historical point of view: the airport was home to the Dutch Air Force from 1913, and during the Second World War the Germans made significant improvements because they attacked the UK from this airbase. During the Cold War, U.S. troops were in the area where nuclear weapons were stored in top secrecy. In 1994, the Americans left the airport. and it was abandoned for quite some time. Since then, the area has served as a natural habitat for animals and is home to the National Military Museum (Nationaal Militair Museum). The Green Shuttle project is an ongoing project of the Entrepreneurial Network Soesterberg (ONS) in cooperation with the municipalities Zeist, Soest and the province Utrecht. The plan is to install a selfdriving electric shuttle, driving along a choice of routes through the nature reserve formerly known as Soesterberg Air Base (that now also harbours the National Military Museum, the NMM) (Hogeschool Utrecht, 2021). Figure 3 shows the project area and the routes that the ONS network showed the project team in a field trip.

Figure 3 -This map shows possible routes of the shuttle. (ONS-Netwerk Soesterberg, 2021)

4.1 Strategic relevance The strategic relevance for the project lies mainly on the creation of a public transport connection between Den Dolder and Soesterberg. As it is right now the connection takes you around the area to either Soest or Amersfoort, which takes a considerable amount of time. By creating a connection that goes through the former air base the travel time can be cut and it is a more appealing journey in general. From a strategic point of view, the green bus is a good idea, it has a lot of potential. Just to name a few: The connection between Den Dolder and Soesterberg, the long-term profit opportunity from a 11

tourist point of view, raising awareness from an environmental point of view, the tourist route offers educational opportunities (habitat of the surrounding animals). In addition, Utrecht has problems with the number of tourists. There are too many tourists in the city and in the region, so the region wants to better disperse the crowds. This would benefit the income of the surrounding municipalities and, last but not least, reduce the risk of Covid-19 (ONS-Netwerk Soesterberg, 2021).

4.2 Project scope This paragraph defines the scope of the project and will make clear what topics will be included in the project and which ones will not be dealt with. The main focus of the project lies on the business case, the business case will explain the feasibility of the project by analysing the potential routes that are available, coming up with a rough estimate of the cost as well as finding revenue streams for the project and mapping the impact on the nature. A side focus is the start and end point of the Green Shuttle, these are the Den Dolder station area and the Soesterberg city centre. A visual design will be created for these points and other stops to give an impression on what these areas will look like. The business case and the designs will be run by the stakeholders to verify if they comply with the stakeholders needs and wishes. Initially, the project will be designed for tourists and visitors of the museum. This might change during the course of the project. As the client wants to focus on tourists and museum visitors, providing transport option for residents and commuters will not be included in this project. Furthermore, the technical aspect of the autonomous vehicles will also not be dealt with since this part is outsourced to 2getthere, the company that builds the busses.

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5. Project definition 5.1 Project purpose The aim is to implement an autonomously driving electric shuttle, driving along a choice of routes through the nature reserve formerly known as Soesterberg Air Base, connecting the Den Dolder station with the NMM and Soesterberg. The purpose of this project is to help along the starting phase of the whole Green Shuttle project. At first, the focus will lie on providing a suitable solution for transporting tourists. As specified in chapter 4.2, the main focus of the project is creating a feasible business case with a side focus of designing the station areas.

5.2 Main research question Due to the problems mentioned above and the objectives set, the main question of the research is as follows: “How can the Green Shuttle become a feasible transport option for the Soesterberg Airbase area?” In answering this question, the most important factor is feasibility: The system should be able to operate as public transport in the future (flexible for expansion). It should be able to sustain itself financially. It should be value-creating while not harming the environment. To answer the research question, the research team worked out a set of sub-questions. These are listed and explained in Table 2.

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5.3 Sub questions Table 2 - Sub questions

Sub question

Reason

Theory/model

Approach

1. Possible routes What routes are available in the area?

To find out what options are available for the shuttle route.

-

The approach to answering this sub question is to conduct field research in the area to see what routes are available and if there are options for additional routes.

2. Multi Criteria analysis How do the possible routes score base on multiple criteria?

To determine which route is the most feasible route.

Multi-Criteria Analysis

To determine which route is the most feasible the routes will be scored using a multi-criteria analysis. These criteria will be devised and verified with the client.

3. Den Dolder station How can the Den Dolder station be designed to contribute to the Green Shuttle project?

Make the station more Double appealing/recognizable Diamond for the shuttle passengers.

With using the Double Diamond model design ideas will be worked out and evaluated with interviewing stakeholder groups. These ideas will be visualized with sketches, maps or 3D models.

Have a system which can sustain itself in long term.

For the business model all the results of the previous sub questions are combined. In addition the costs, ownership, revenue streams etc. will be looked into and concluded to determine the feasibility of the entire project.

4. Business model What business case can be a viable option for the Green Shuttle?

Business model canvas Cost-benefit analysis

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6. Methodology 6.1 Approach The approach to handling the research question is as follows: Research on expectations on good public transportation to be made. The possible routes are to be explored in cooperation with the stakeholders and adjusted based on their feedbacks. This should result in multiple routes which then are weighed based on the following criteria. Criteria is detailed in part 6.3: -

Costs and benefits Nature disturbance Length/Time Attractiveness Road integration Stakeholder needs

A business case will be made for the most feasible route. The business case will contain a detailed costbenefit analysis of the project, visual designs for the tracks and stations and elaborate on the needs of all the stakeholders and how they are taken into account. Find a route Clustering and naming (Creating possible routes) On-Site observation (Points of interest) Multicriteria analysis (Conclusion and ranking)

Design of start and end point Double Diamond (Discover, Define, Design, Deliver) Sketching (Drawing) Interviews (Visitors, other potential users)

Business case Cost-benefit analysis (With stakeholders) Business Model Canvas (BMC) (Identifying variables) Finance case study (Desk research)

6.2 Research methods 6.2.1 Qualitative methods: a. Document analysis: Using online available documents, maps, and books available in the Hogeschool Utrecht Library and documents provided by the client the research group gather past and present information, and data concerning future possibilities. With these insights the group can isolate cases from other areas that have already failed, tried or on plan/theory. From observing previously tried methods it can also be determined which parts are reusable with adequate modifications from a new angle. b. On site observations: Conducting on site trips to observe the area where the project is to be carried out and identify elements and locations to be taken into account, to be modified or protected. During these visits, the group takes photos and thoroughly examines points of interest such as the runways, possible routes etc. On site observations also help to understand the needs of different stakeholders (e.g.: Utrechts Landschap). 15

c. Oral history of client and locals: Meetings with the client gives them the opportunity to share previous experiences on the area and specify relations between stakeholders to allow the research team to discover previously unseen risks. Having an insight on local history first handed might be a good way to understand the adequate approach of the project. d. Semi-structured interviews: Our target audience are people who live near, work at or travel to Soesterberg Airbase regardless of age or gender (but for statistics reason it will be asked). By categories, our interviews are spontaneous and individual. Questions are prepared but could be deviated if reasoned. Recording of interview depending on permit and subjects’ preinterview consent is via notes or sound recording. Interviews are performed anonymously, and records are to be stored until permitted by the municipality of territory which the interview is conducted in.

6.2.2 Quantitative methods: a. Surveying: The project group will ask identical questions in paper form National Military Museum visitors, Den Dolder station users and people working or living in the area regardless of age or gender (but for statistics reason it will be asked). The survey will focus on the needs and opinion of the target audience about the project. The survey serves as a tool to create our own statistics on the Green Shuttle project. Surveys are performed anonymously, and answers are to be stored until permitted by the municipality of territory which the survey is conducted in. b. Document screening: Using finance and tourism reports and articles the group will determine approximate cost of future project possibilities to create a business plan asked by the client. c. Statistics analysis: Using statistics provided by the client and available online the group can estimate the number of people that could or would use the product of the project in the future. The project group will investigate numbers on local tourism data, demographics, traffic data etc.

6.3 Multicriteria analysis: Concerning the possible routes, the project group will analyze the qualities of each viable option with different criteria’s that have to be met for the project to be feasible. The analysis will be conducted in a table and routes are to be given point in categories. These points are summarized at the end. Categories (with explanations) are the following: •

• •

Cost: Approximate budget needed to make the route accessible for autonomous shuttles (e.g.: safety rails, road material, bus stops, charging stations). Lower points mean higher costs, higher points indicate lower costs. Nature: Scale of impact on the nature reserve and its surroundings concerning noise, pollution etc. Lower points mean greater impact, higher points indicate low impact. Length, time: Traveled distance and time to destination from Den Dolder station. Lower points mean longer trip, higher points mean shorter trip.

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•

•

•

Attractiveness: Evaluating the desirableness as a tourist attraction for the shuttle ride based on the elements/points of interest visible from the route without leaving the shuttle. Lower points mean lower attractiveness, higher points indicate better touristic qualities. Road integration: Investigating if the shuttle is safely and effectively integrateable for a route. For example: investigating the question if the green shuttle route could run alongside or on the provincial fast-bike lane that connects Utrecht and Amersfoort. Meeting with needs of stakeholders: Based on stakeholders needs, we evaluate if a route is acceptable for all stakeholders. For example, if the National Military Museum is satisfied with a fast route, it influences points to be higher, but if it makes representators of Utrecht Landschap unhappy the points will be lowered. Criteria might be adjusted to take other factors into consideration in the time of research if needed, based on new insights, discoveries, or ideas. Table 3 – multi-criteria analysis point template

Route number Cost Nature Length, time Attractiveness Road integration Stakeholder needs Overall points

#1

#2.a

#2.b

#2.c

#3

#4

x x x x

x x x x

x x x x

x x x x

x x x x

x x x x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

In research, numbers of routes to be attached to maps of the possible route in question and reason of evaluation to be added.

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6.4 Double Diamond For designing the stations, a design process model should be applied. In our case the project group will use the Double Diamond method created and popularized by Design Council. It was created to aid designing solutions on social, economic, and environmental challenges. Each part of the Double Diamond represents a step in creating a solution. After each step a conclusion can be drawn which can result in stepping to the next part or recurring to a previous step. (Design Council, 2019)

4. Figure: Double Diamond Design Process (Digi-ark, 2020)

The first diamond is about understanding and specifying the problem the designer faces. The second diamond is helping in creating several insights and approach to tackle the previously stated problem. •

• •

•

Discover step is going to be used to gather information on the topic autonomous transportation equipment, large scale human transportation and natural effects of traffic. Getting an insight on the opinion of the target group and stakeholders through interviews and surveys is also part of discovery part. Define step will be used to define the needs and exact elements of criteria to be used during design creation. Develop step is to be used after a definition was stated of the current problem to tackle. In this step the project group will use desk research and develop potential solutions based on case studies and statistics gathered in the first diamond phase. Deliver step will consist of multicriteria analysis and researching the possible effects of each solution. By the end of this phase the group will eliminate not feasible solutions and solutions that are less suitable for the client and the project. In the final phase remaining solutions are to be improved and delivered to the client and research supervisors. (Rietbergen, Velzing, & van Stigt, 2021)

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6.5 Business model canvas: The project group will use business model canvas to describe and summarize the structure of the project businesswise.

Figure 5 – Business model canvas template (Business Models Inc., 2021)

• • • • • • • • •

Customer segments: Listing segments that provide the most revenue. Value proposition: What do we do for the customer? Products and services. Revenue streams: Listing revenue streams, even costless actions. Channels: Describing the communication way with the costumer. Customer relationships: How is the relationship and how do we maintain it? Key activities: How do we run the business model day by day? Key resources: Knowledge, means, workforce put on the project. Key partners: Main characters in the project without whom the business is not doable. Cost structure: Top costs of activities and resources. (Business Models Inc., 2021)

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7. Preliminary program of requirements The preliminary program of requirements contains a list of requirements that the design for the solution needs to adhere. The requirements have been devised in cooperation with the client. Table 4 - Preliminary program of requirements

Name Flexibility

Utrecht Landschap

Durability

Finance/Economy

Ecology

People

Territorial boundaries

Model shift of mobility

Dutch rules on autonomous vehicles

Short summary As the Green Shuttle is mainly supposed to focus on tourism, there should be an option to adapt the frequency and route in case of special events. The solution should be especially attractive for Utrecht Landschap and ideally provide them with an opportunity to gain revenue out of it. The system should be designed in a way that it is going to last a long time and still be of the same use and value in the future. The Green Shuttle system should sustain itself financially, create revenue and on the long term be able to run without subsidies. Ecological sustainability should be considered. The solution should be as minimally disruptive to the nature in the area as possible. Especially in the nature reserve it is important to keep the impact on nature and wildlife to a minimum. The Green Shuttle needs to be an appealing transport option compared to the car or other motor vehicles by creating a value and an incentive for people to switch. The route of the Shuttle needs to cover at least the Den Dolder station, the NMM, the restaurant Soesterdal and the Oriental Swan Restaurant in Soesterberg. The natural reserve creates a spatial boundary, the crossing of which need to be carefully assessed. The Shuttle project should contribute to the model shift of mobility and encourage people to take part in it.

The idea of the Green Shuttle should have a pioneering role in changing people´s minds to be more open towards innovative solutions. In the end, the solution needs to be approved by the Dutch Vehicle Authority (RDW). The Experimental Law for selfdriving vehicles allows test projects under strict conditions (Government of the Netherlands, 2019).

Source Client

Client

Client

Client

Client

Client

Client

Client

Own research

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8. Project plan In this chapter the envisioned plan is shown for the entire project duration. It includes all the deliverables and gives a rough estimate of the time needed per sub question. An enlarged version of the plan in Figure 6 is added in the Appendix. Roles and tasks throughout the project are to be divided. Table 5 specifies the role of each team member and Table 6 shows the responsibility for the tasks. In a future event of team member not being satisfied with the role or task, schedule can be altered. Table 5 - Team roles

Role in team Project group leader Analytics Research coordinator Time and location planner Communication and contact Designer Quality assurance management Aesthetics Data collection and sorting Technical expert Sustainability expert Risk analysis Mapping Coffee enthusiast

Person Paul Andras & Greg Paul & Wouter Andras Paul Group responsibility Wouter Svenja Group responsibility Andras, Wouter & Greg Svenja & Paul Wouter Greg Svenja, Andras, Wouter

Figure 6 - GANTT chart

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Table 6 - Tasks

Tasks Essays Research plan Final presentation for the university Final presentation stakeholders Final report Sub question 1 Sub question 2 Sub question 3 Sub question 4

Responsible person All All Greg & András Svenja, Wouter & Paul All Greg Svenja & András Wouter Paul

9. Risk analysis In this paragraph the potential risks of the project will be explored, evaluated and mitigating measures defined. The following definition will be used to characterize risks: “Risk and uncertainty characterize situations where the actual outcome for a particular event or activity is likely to deviate from the estimate or forecast value (Raftery, 1994).” Table 7 - Risk analysis

Risk

Level of occurrence*

Level of impact*

Mitigating measure

Technical defects shuttle

Low

Moderate

Close contact with the shuttle manufacturer

Stakeholder(s) not onboard

High

High

Regular updates and meetings with stakeholders to scope out all their needs

COVID-19

Moderate

Low

Making sure that every rule and regulation made by the government is followed

Unforeseen problems in the area

Low

Moderate

A thorough analysis of the area and all its aspects

Communication problems

Moderate

Moderate

Having multiple contact persons in every organisation, so that if communication is lacking from one source there is always a backup

* = The level of occurrence and impact are based on assumptions made by the research team.

9.1 Risk definition Technical defects bus: Any technical defect that could happen to the Green Shuttle Stakeholder(s) not onboard: When one or more stakeholder is not onboard with the Green Shuttle project, this can be partially not onboard and fully not onboard. 22

COVID-19: Even though vaccination rates are going up, COVID still poses a real threat to any project. The research team could catch COVID, which would delay the project, or the Green Shuttle cannot comply with the safety regulations imposed by the government and would not be allowed as a transport method. Unforeseen problems in the area: This risk relates to anything unforeseen in the area e.g., soil contaminations, rare species of animals, activism etc. Communication problems: Due to the fact that this project has an abundance of stakeholders it is more likely that communication with one of these stakeholders is going to be suboptimal.

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Bibliography Business Models Inc. (2021). Business model canvas. Retrieved from https://www.businessmodelsinc.com/about-bmi/tools/business-model-canvas/ Defensiemusea. (2019). Jaarverslag defensimusea. Design Council. (2019). Design Council. Retrieved from Designcouncil.org.uk: https://www.designcouncil.org.uk/news-opinion/what-framework-innovation-designcouncils-evolved-double-diamond Digi-ark. (2020). Wikimedia. Retrieved from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Double_diamond.png Government of the Netherlands. (2019, July 2.). Government of the Netherlands. Retrieved from Green Light for Experimental Law for testing self-driving vehicles on public roads: https://www.government.nl/latest/news/2019/07/02/green-light-for-experimental-law-fortesting-self-driving-vehicles-on-public-roads Hogeschool Utrecht. (2021). Canvas. Retrieved from https://canvas.hu.nl/courses/26968/pages/green-shuttle-and-station-dendolder?module_item_id=633573 Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Waterstaat. (2021). Atlas Leefomgeving. Retrieved from https://www.atlasleefomgeving.nl/ Nationaal Militair Museum. (2021). Nationaal Militair Museum. Retrieved from Plan your visit: https://www.nmm.nl/en/visit/ Nationaal Militair Museum. (n.d.). Exhibition. ONS-Netwerk Soesterberg. (2021). Polonsky, M. J. (1996). Stakeholder management and the stakeholder matrix: Potential strategic marketing tools.

Journal of Market-Focused Management, 209-229. Raftery, J. (1994). Chapter 1 Risks and uncertainties in projects. In J. Raftery, Risk analysis in project management (pp. 1-24). London: E & FN Spon. Rietbergen, M., Velzing, E.-J., & van Stigt, R. (2021). Smart Sustainable Cities: a handbook for applied sciences. Utrecht: SURFsharekit publication.

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Appendix

Appendix

I

Appendix

II