Bijlage 3 CE_Delft_230219_Carbon_budget_aviation_Def.pdf

Carbon budget aviation

Content 1 Management summary 2 Introduction 3 Policy landscape of aviation in climate policies 4 Remaining CO2 budget for global and Dutch aviation 5 Impacts on the number of flights at Schiphol in 2030 6 References

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Annexes A Non-CO2 effects B Scenario assumptions

1 Management summary Purpose and approach of this study — Royal Schiphol Group has commissioned CE Delft to determine remaining carbon budgets for Dutch aviation which are in line with the Paris Agreement and to investigate the consequences for the possible number of flights departing from Amsterdam Airport Schiphol. — The remaining carbon budget is determined based on the latest IPCC report and different assumptions and choices. — As background information a concise overview of the relevant national and international policies is given.

Climate change — Today, climate change has impacts on both nature and human beings. In the next decades the intensity will increase. — Evidence accumulates that the physical impacts of a temperature increase of 2 ºC above pre-industrial levels may be disproportionally larger than those of a 1.5 ºC increase. — Therefore, the global leaders have agreed in the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to well below 2 ºC and to aim for 1.5 ºC.

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Remaining carbon budgets — The key driver of global warming is CO2, which adds up cumulatively in the atmosphere. — A net zero target in a specific year is not sufficient, the path towards net zero determines the global temperature increase. — IPCC has estimated remaining global carbon budgets after 2020 corresponding with specific temperature increases with certain likelihoods. Tabel 1 - Estimated remaining carbon budgets from the beginning of 2020 in Gt CO2 Temperature increase/probability

50%

67%

83%

1.5 ºC

500

400

300

1.7 ºC

850

700

550

2.0 ºC

1,350

1,150

900

Source: IPCC.

— In this study we consider two budgets: • 500 Gt: 50% likelihood that global warming is limited to below 1.5 °C. • 700 Gt: 67% likelihood that global warming is limited to below 1.7 °C. Note that this budget is not in line with limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, and the extent to which this budget is Paris-aligned is debatable.

Net zero in 2050 is not enough in itself. Global warming is driven by the cumulative Greenhouse Gas emissions between today and the moment when global net zero is achieved. Decarbonisation challenge for global aviation — In 2019, the share of aviation in global CO2 emissions was 2.4% (Tank-To-Wing emissions from fuel combustion) and 3.9% (Well-To-Wing emissions, taking into account emissions from fuel production and distribution). — In the last decades aviation emissions grew by 3-4% per year. In the past, growth in flights has always outperformed the efficiency improvements by new aircraft types and more efficient operations, leading to growth in emissions. — Aviation is generally considered as a ‘hard-to-abate’ sector, however replacing fossil fuel with Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is technically relatively easy but expensive (‘costly-to-abate’ sector). • The downsides of the increasing requirement of SAFs are: ◦ biomass competes for land needed for naturebased carbon removal and other land-use; ◦ clean energy could be used more effectively to decarbonize other sectors. • Costly-to-abate implies that decarbonization is cheaper in other sectors (especially in developing

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countries). As a result, aviation buys EU ETS allowances from other sectors (for intra-EU flights) and uses offsets in CORSIA (for intercontinental flights). For the latter it is doubtful that the current prices lead to additional CO2 reductions at all. — Technological breakthroughs like battery electric or hydrogen aircraft will not contribute to a significant reduction of emissions in the next two decades. — New aircraft types that are currently developed will be in operation in 2050 and those still require kerosine or SAFs. Therefore, immediate scaling-up of biofuel production and pre-commercial development of the synthetic fuel production are essential. — It must be noted that availability for biomass and green energy will be limited in the next decades, and there is strong competition between different sectors and global regions for these resources. Further growth in aviation exacerbates this issue.

Technological breakthroughs will come too late and SAF production has limits. Demand management measures are necessary to align the aviation sector with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Remaining carbon budgets for global and Dutch aviation — The allocation of a remaining carbon budget for aviation can be based on different societal and political choices: • Maintain current share of 2.4%. • Increase share since aviation is a ‘hard-to-abate’ sector. The International Energy Agency IEA has estimated an increase to 3.9%. • Decrease share since aviation is a luxury product and access is not fairly/equally distributed between developed and developing countries. — The decrease option is not further investigated in this report. Therefore, the resulting aviation budgets have to be considered as upper limits. Table 2 - Remaining carbon budgets from the beginning of 2020 for Global aviation Global aviation carbon budget

50% 1.5°

66% 1.7°

(500 Gt)

(700 Gt)

Current aviation share 2.4%

12.0 Gt

16.8 Gt

IEA NZE aviation share 3.9%

19.5 Gt

27.3 Gt

Non-CO2 climate impact • Non-CO2 effects of aviation are estimated to be responsible for 2/3 of the total aviation climate effect. The two largest climate impacts come from contrail-cirrus formation and NOx emissions. • In contrast to CO2, the time horizon of the non-CO2 effects is much shorter, as they break down quicker through chemical reactions.

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• •

• •

Since they do not add up cumulatively, they are not considered in the remaining carbon budgets. However, non-CO2 emissions lead to global warming for a short period of time. During this period they increase the probability of reaching tipping points in global warming and therefore contribute to irreversible processes. It is very important to develop efficient non-CO2 policies and to reduce them as soon and as fast as possible. In a net zero situation non-CO2 emissions have to be compensated.

— Currently, aviation departing from Dutch airports has a share of 1.16% of global aviation. — Within the Dutch budget Schiphol has a share of 96%. — For the future allocation between Dutch and global aviation, different ethical frames can be applied: • Maintaining the share of 1.16% continues the disproportional high emissions of Dutch citizens. • Distributing the budget to countries by shares of the world population, leads to a Dutch share of 0.21%. • Applying socio-economic forecasts on the current market share leads to a share of 1.05%. The Dutch share decreases slightly since the population and economy growths faster in other parts of the world. This share is applied in the further analysis leading to Dutch carbon budgets between 126 Mt and 287 Mt.

•

Table 3 – Remaining carbon budgets from the beginning of 2020 for Dutch aviation 50% 1.5°

66% 1.7°

(500 Gt)

(700 Gt)

Current share 2.4%

126 Mt

176 Mt

IEA NZE share 3.9%

205 Mt

287 Mt

Personal aviation budget – a theoretical exercise The remaining budget of 205 Mt is an abstract number. To give the reader a feeling for what this implies a personal aviation budget for the average Dutch citizen is calculated. It is a theoretical exercise that does not take into account any variations in the population. • The budget is allocated between freight/passengers, OD-/transfer passengers and Dutch citizen/visitors (based on the CO2 share in 2019). • The personal budget for the average Dutch person is 6 ton CO2. • For the average world citizen the analogue calculation leads to a remaining budget of 1.6 ton, which is 27% for the average Dutch person. With the current aircraft and fuels, the budget of 6 ton CO2 corresponds to (based on the online version of the ICAO carbon emissions calculator): • 25.5 return flights to Barcelona (economy class); • 9.5 return flights to New York (economy class); • 7.3 return flights to Tokyo (economy class); • 2.4-3.6 return flights to Tokyo depending on the chair configuration (business class).

— From these four budgets we consider the 205 Mt budget to be the upper bound for Dutch aviation for the following reasons: • aim of Paris Agreement is to limit global warming to 1.5 °C; • not aiming for ambitious targets increases the risk of overshoots;

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•

•

•

aviation is a non-essential industry and should not claim a disproportionate share of green energy and biomass; due to its high historic aviation emissions and national welfare, the Dutch aviation sector should set ambitious targets; the budget allocated to the Netherlands per capita is still almost a factor four larger than the world average; non-CO2 effects are not included in the budgets and require compensation.

Hard-to-abate curves vs. immediate reduction — The form of a logical reduction path depends on the remaining carbon budget. — For the highest budget (287 Mt) different reduction paths are possible, which require moderate emission reduction until 2030. — For the other three budgets much stricter reduction targets have to be defined and immediate action is required (see Figure 10 for three indicative examples corresponding with the 205 Mt budget): • Linear reduction: This approach reaches zero emissions in 2052. • Accelerating speed: Moderate reduction in the first years requires zero emissions much earlier than 2050.

•

Immediate action: Fast emission reduction before 2030 allows that zero emissions could be reached after 2050, for instance by increasing SAF blending from 70 to 100% between 2050 and 2060.

• Figure 1 – Potential reduction paths for a remaining carbon budget of 205 Mt 14.0

CO2 emissions (Mt)

12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0

2020

2025

2030

Accelerating speed

2035

2040

2045

Immediate action

2050

2055

2060

230219 - Carbon budget aviation – January 2024

Immediate reduction of carbon emissions is necessary. Otherwise aviation requires disproportional amounts of clean energy and land or depends on uncertain technological breakthroughs.

Linear reduction

— Both the linear and the accelerating speed variants depend on breakthroughs in aircraft technology, carbon removal or SAF production way before 2050, and therefore have a high risk of exceeding the carbon budget. — Whether electric/hydrogen aircrafts or large-scale carbon capture and storage (in addition to direct air capture for

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the production of synthetic fuels) will be available in time is very uncertain. The aircraft that are currently being developed will dominate the fleets in 2050, and these still rely on fossil fuel or SAF. — SAF production capacities will probably be scaled up significantly in the next decades. Whether sufficient clean energy and biomass is available for global demand is highly uncertain. A risk is that additional blending in Europe cannibalises the world market, due to the scarcity of biomass and clean energy. — The potential energy demand for all these technologies puts additional pressure on the decarbonization of other sectors and regions worldwide.

— To prevent dependency on technological breakthroughs, and limit the risk of overshooting the carbon budget, immediate reduction is required to prevent even more drastic measures in the future. — An accelerating speed curve is commonly used in sustainability roadmaps, motivated by the time needed to ‘scale up’ new technologies. Considering the remaining available budget and the speed at which this is running

out, such a pathway is no longer feasible without immediate action.

Paris-aligned pathways for Dutch aviation and 2030 reduction targets — During the period 2020 to 2024, approximately 46 Mt of the remaining budgets will be used despite the reduced activities caused by the COVID19 pandemic. — With the current level of emissions, the 205 Mt budget is exhausted in 2038 (13.6 years), the 126 Mt budget in less than 7 years.

If the sector aspires to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, the remaining budget is exhausted in 2038, with the current level of emissions. — Decling in-sector CO2 reduction paths are needed to keep emissions within the budgets. — The 287 Mt can be reached by setting a zero-emission target in 2063 and defining a linear path between the current 2030 target (equal to 2005 level) and 2063. — The other budgets require immediate action. However, we assume linear reductions between 2025 and 2030 and no hard jumps. — Our ‘immediate reduction’ pathways have a linear reduction between 2025 and an immediate action goal in 2030. They contain SAF blending according to RefuelEU,

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and full carbon removals for any remaining emissions after 2050 in line with Destination2050 (see Figure 2). — The required reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 are summarized in Table 3. Table 4 – In-sector reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 compared to 2019 emissions for the four remaining carbon budgets 2030

2050

287 Mt budget (1.7 °C, 3.9%)

-5%

-63%

205 Mt budget (1.5 °C, 3.9%)

-30%

-81%

176 Mt budget (1.7 °C, 2.4%)

-47%

-84%

126 Mt budget (1.5 °C, 2.4%)

-77%

-90%

Figure 3 – Overview of emission in time periods. The CO2 ceiling shows the potential budget that would fit in the proposed CO2 ceiling (and which would exceed Paris aligned

Figure 2 – Reduction paths for the four remaining carbon budgets

carbon budgets). The percentages illustrate the reduction targets for 2030.

12.0

400

10.0

350

8.0

300 CO2 budget (Mt)

CO2 emissions (Mt)

14.0

6.0 4.0 2.0

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

CO2 ceiling

287 Mt budget -5%

176 Mt budget - 47%

126 Mt budget -77%

2055

2060

2065

2070

205 Mt budget - 30%

— To align with a 1.5 ºC pathway, at least 30% CO2 reduction is needed in 2030, based on a 3.9% share of aviation in total emissions. If aviation maintains its current share, CO2 emissions must be around 77% lower in 2030. — The cumulative emissions that fit within the current Dutch national aviation CO2 ceiling proposal1 overshoots the Paris aligned budgets, even those which aim for 1.7 ºC. ________________________________ The Dutch ministry of transport is preparing legislation for a Dutch CO2 ceiling that sets insector emission targets for aircraft departing from Durch airport for the years 2030, 2050 and 2070.

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250 ​

1.5° | 3.9%

200

1.7° | 2.4% ​

150 ​

1.5° | 2.4% ​

100

0.0

1

1.7° | 3.9% ​

230219 - Carbon budget aviation – January 2024

50 0 CO2 ceiling

287 Mt budget - 205 Mt budget - 176 Mt budget - 126 Mt budget 5% 30% 47% 77% 2020-2023

2024-2030

2031-2050

2051-2070

Reduction paths with and without carbon removal — For the 205 Mt budget a sensitivity analysis is performed for situations with and without carbon removal (Figure 4): • A scenario with moderate carbon removal from 2050 onwards (8% compared to the ‘hypothetical no-action

Figure 4 – Scenarios for 205 Mt budgets with and without carbon removal after 2030 and its implications on the reduction targets for 2030 14.0 12.0 CO2 emissions (Mt)

growth’ scenario) as proposed in Destination 2050 requiring 30% CO2 reduction in 2030. • A scenario without carbon removal, which assumes an increase in SAF blending from 70 in 2050 to 100% in 2060 requiring 37% CO2 reduction in 2030. — An ‘earlier carbon removal’ path with large scale carbon removal way before 2050 is not considered, since this is considered to be very unlikely. — In 2050, emissions have to be reduced by 81% compared to 2019 in both scenarios. — In 2030 a reduction between 30 and 37% compared to 2019 has to be achieved, which is significantly more than the goal of -9% (2030 = 2005 emissions) of the Duurzame Luchtvaarttafel.

10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0

2.0 0.0 2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Carbon removal after 2050

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

2070

No carbon removal

For a limitation of global warming to 1.5 °C, emissions should be reduced by 30 to 37% in 2030 compared to 2019 levels.

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Impacts on the number of flights at Schiphol in 2030 — The ‘immediate action without carbon removal’ variant, for the 205 Mt budget, has a carbon budget for the year 2030 of 7.3 Mt. For the share of Schiphol 96% is assumed (same as 2019). — The number of flights that fit into this budget depends on the development of the key variables: • aircraft and operational efficiency improvements; • SAF blending (6% according to RefuelEU Aviation); • aircraft size; • flight distance. — We derive potential numbers of aircraft movements that fit into this budget in 2030 based on the results of the Dutch WLO aviation scenarios. — The average forecast of the WLO Low and High scenario’s for 2030 are (compared to 2019): • 500,000 aircraft movements (+0%): ◦ 375,000 European flights (-6%); ◦ 125,000 intercontinental flights (+25%). • 96.6 million passengers (+35%); • 1.05% annual fuel efficiency improvement (-11%); • 6% SAF blending (+6%); • 11.4 Mt CO2 (-1%). ________________________________ 2

In the 25 years before the Covid pandemic the number of passengers per flight at Schiphol has grown on average by 2.3% per year.

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— In the WLO the efficiency improvements, SAF blending and constant capacity restriction do not lead to a CO2 emission reduction, since they are compensated by larger aircraft (more passengers, +2.7%2 per year) and longer flight distances (more ICA). — The possible number of flights is investigated for different shares of intercontinental flights and different developments in aircraft size (see Figure 5). Figure 5 – Potential number of flights in 2030 at Schiphol in line with the 205 Mt budget

With the current aircraft sizes and distribution between European (80%) and intercontinental flights (20%) this would limit operations to 419,000 flights. — With an increase in aircraft size (and 20% intercontinental flights) the limit would be 340,000 flights. — With a reduction of the intercontinental flights to hypothetical share of 11% and the current aircraft size up to 557,000 flights could fit into the budget. — With additional SAF blending (14% instead of 6% in 2030) about 6% additional flights are possible within the budget. However, the availability for biomass and green energy will be limited in the next decades, and there is strong competition between different sectors and global regions for these resources. Further growth in aviation exacerbates this issue.

In 2030, the maximum number of flights depends strongly on the share of intercontinental flights and the development in aircraft size. Comparison with policies and options We compare a number of existing policies or policy options against the Paris-aligned carbon budgets. The following policies are assessed: — ‘500k constant no SAF’: A hypothetical variant with a limit of 500,000 flights at Schiphol and no SAF uptake. It shows

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—

—

— —

that using SAFs instead of fossil fuels is a basic requirement for the decarbonization of aviation. ‘500k constant’: the announced SAF blending obligation of RefuelEU Aviation is applied and nearly halves the cumulative emissions to 306 Mt. ‘CO2 ceiling’: The CO2 ceiling has reduction targets for 2030 (equal to 2005), 2050 (50% reduction) and 2070 (zero). The cumulative budget overshoots all considered budgets for Dutch aviation. ‘440k variant’: The previously announced limit for the capacity reduction at Schiphol. ‘Immediate action variant’: Option with a cumulative carbon budget of 205 Mt.

The cumulative CO2 emissions under the CO2 ceiling would overshoot all of the 1.5 °C and 1.7 °C budgets.

None of the announced national (policy) options are in line with a remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C. Global aviation — Measures for sustainable aviation should preferably be introduced on the largest possible geographic scale due to the international and highly competitive character of aviation. — National policies, for example flight reductions at Schiphol, will partly lead to passengers and cargo deviating to other (foreign) airports, in particular

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for transfer passengers. Therefore, part of the emission reduction at Dutch airports will be compensated by more emissions at other airports (waterbed effect or carbon leakage). — However, another part of the passengers and cargo will fly less as a consequence of higher ticket prices and fewer available flight options. Detailed model calculations show that capacity restrictions at Schiphol lead to a net decrease in CO2 emissions on a global scale. The aviation industry worldwide has to answer the question on how to prevent a substantial overshoot of the remaining carbon budget. But until now global institutions and the sector itself have failed to implement policies aiming at 1.5 °C targets for aviation. Since the time window to turn the development of aviation emissions from a fast growth into a fast decline is very limited, key players have to move now. Wealthy nations with disproportional high historic emissions have a special responsibility to act. By leading the way and setting an example of how to transition the Dutch aviation sector to a 1.5 °C consistent path, global and EU institutions could follow.

2 Introduction Impacts of global warming In 2015 in Paris, the world agreed to hold global warming well below 2 ºC above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ºC. Eight years later, this last objective seems almost out of reach. On 8 June 2023, while this report was being written, climate scientists published a paper concluding that global warming reached 1.26 ºC in 2022 and increased faster than ever before (0.2 ºC over 2013-2022), fuelled by global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that were higher than during any previous decade (Forster et al., 2023). July 2023 then turned out to be the hottest month on record globally, with the 1.5 ºC threshold being temporarily exceeded during the first and third week of the month (WMO, 2023). At the same time, evidence accumulates that the physical impacts of a temperature increase of 2 ºC above pre-industrial levels may be disproportionally larger than those of a 1.5 ºC increase. This has partly to do with so-called tipping points in the climate system. As this system is complex and contains many feedback loops, crossing a certain (temperature) threshold can indirectly cause very large and almost irreversible changes in the wider system. Some main examples of tipping points are (UCAR, n.d.):

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— Melting of the polar ice sheets. As loss of ice surface reinforces itself through the albedo effect, the melting of the Antarctic and/or Greenland ice sheets could become irreversible - as would the associated massive sea level rise. — Weakening Gulf Stream. Melting ice sheets would also affect ocean circulation patterns through the influx of cold fresh water. In particular, this could lead to an irreversible weakening or even reversal of the Atlantic Gulf Stream, fundamentally changing existing weather patterns. — Collapse of rainforest. If the destruction of rainforest, such as in the Amazon region, passes the associated tipping point, the rainforest is not able to sustain itself anymore and would further collapse, releasing large amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. Partly because of the tipping point mechanisms, limiting global warming to 1.5 ºC instead of just 2 ºC makes a significant difference in terms of projected impacts on both nature and human beings. Allowing global warming to rise to 2 ºC, compared with 1.5 ºC, could for instance: — increase the share of the world population exposed to at least one extreme heat wave per 5 years from 14% to 37% (Dosio et al., 2018); increase the share of the world population exposed to at least one extreme heat wave per 5 years from 14 to 37% (Dosio et al., 2018);

— increase the number of people both exposed to climaterelated risks and susceptible to poverty by up to several hundred million by 2050 (IPCC, 2018); — increase the share of the world population exposed to a climate-change induced increase in water stress by up to 50% (IPCC, 2018); — double the very high extinction risk for endemic species in biodiversity hotspots (IPCC, 2022); — increase the probability of an ice-free Arctic region to 1 in 10 years instead of 1 in 100 years (IPCC, 2018); increase the probability of an ice-free Arctic region to 1 in 10 years instead of 1 in 100 years (IPCC, 2018). Furthermore, climate impacts such as the ones mentioned above could force the displacement of more than 200 million people by 2050 (World Bank, 2021). This may also lead to increased migration flows towards regions that are better placed to adapt to climate change, such as North America and Europe (EP, 2022). These examples illustrate the importance of keeping global warming limited to 1.5 ºC. In order to keep this goal within reach, GHG emissions will have to be reduced economy-wide at an unprecedented rate over the coming years. ________________________________ 3

Well-to-Wing, so including emissions from fuel production and distribution. The emission from fuel combustions in the aircraft engines is called Tank-to-Wing emissions and has a share of 2.4%.

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Aviation contributes to 3.7% of global CO2 emissions3. Within aviation the Netherlands have a share of approximately 1.2%. Apart from this, also non-CO2 effects such as contrail-cirrus formation and NOx emissions cause radiative forcing, hence climate impacts. Efficiency improvements only partially compensate for growth of demand, meaning global aviation emissions are increasing. Between 2013 and 2019, global passenger transport-related aviation CO2 emissions grew by 33% (ICCT, 2020). Figure 6 illustrates the difference in speed between the growth in global air traffic and the technological improvements leading to more fuel efficient operations. The result is that aviation CO2 emissions increased with a rate of 4 to 5% per year. In order to limit global warming to well below 2 ºC, this trend has to be turned into a fast decline within a short period of time.

Figure 6 - Historic development of global air traffic growth, fuel efficiency gains and CO2 emissions between 1970 and 2019

budget in a remaining number of flights, again for a certain set of assumptions.

Reading guide In Chapter 3, we present an overview of all climate-related targets and instruments in force that are relevant to aviation, at different governance levels: global, Europe (EU) and national (the Netherlands). We also pay attention to the special status of aviation in worldwide climate action and to the ambitions of the aviation sector itself. We analyse the targets and instrument systematically and present an overview of their main features, such as scope, legal status and target year.

Source: stay-grounded.org (Lee et al., 2021),

Purpose of the study In this report, we investigate the consequences that the limited remaining global carbon budget has for Dutch aviation, in particular for flights departing from Amsterdam Airport Schiphol and the other Dutch airports. We analyse the various types of assumptions that need to be made explicit in order to estimate a remaining carbon budget for Dutch aviation and we explain our choice of a coherent set of assumptions. Finally, we translate the resulting carbon

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In Chapter 4, we derive remaining CO2 budgets for global and Dutch aviation. Starting points are the remaining global budgets as published by the IPCC. We discuss the challenge to decarbonize the aviation sector and estimate remaining carbon budgets for global and Dutch aviation based on technological and ethical considerations. For illustration purposes the remaining aviation CO2 budget for the average Dutch citizen is calculated. For four remaining carbon budgets possible decarbonisation paths are defined and resulting emission targets for 2030 are discussed. These targets are compared to current policies.

Finally, in Chapter 5, the impacts on the number of flights at Schiphol in 2030 are described and the key variables are discussed.

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3 Policy landscape of aviation in climate policies In this chapter, we present a concise overview of the policy landscape with regard to the role of international aviation in global climate policies. That is, we assess the existing climate targets, their character and legal status, and relevant policy instruments and focus on its meaning and consequences for aviation. We perform this analysis for three policy levels (global, EU and national for NL) as well as for the level of the aviation sector itself. But first, we have a brief look at the special position of aviation in global climate policy.

3.1

Status of aviation in climate policy

from maritime and aviation are not easily assigned to a specific country. Furthermore, the 1944 Chicago Convention on Aviation (see Text box 1) stressed the importance of an unhampered post-war development of international civil aviation, which was believed to contribute to welfare and human connection. Section Summary Aviation has a special position in international climate action because of historical reasons and because of its international character. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is the main entity dealing with international efforts to curb aviation emissions.

Text box 1 - The Chicago Convention on Aviation The Second World War was an important driver of technical developments in aviation. Forced by the needs of warfare and large-scale displacements of people, a network of passenger and freight flights was created, but in order to turn this into a proper functioning civilian aviation system, many technical and political obstacles had to be overcome. Therefore, the US government invited 55 other countries, some still under

Together with the maritime sector, aviation holds a distinct position in global climate policy due to its international character. Unlike emissions in industry, built environment, agriculture and most other transport sectors, GHG emissions

occupation, to attend an International Civil Aviation Conference in Chicago in 1944 (ICAO, n.d.-b).

The main objective of the Chicago Convention, as it became commonly known, was to lay the foundation for uniform standards and procedures to ensure safe and peaceful global air navigation. As a means to this goal, the Convention foresaw the

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creation of an International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to organize and support the international coordination between countries – see main text.

At the time of the Convention, the large potential of international air traffic, both economically and in terms of bringing together people from all over the world, was widely recognized. With the end of the devastating war visible at the horizon, the Convention was drafted with the aim to ‘create and preserve friendship and

UNFCCC In 1992, at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was established, committing its signatories to reduce atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases with the goal of preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the Earth’s climate system (UN, 1992).

understanding among the nations and peoples around the world’. From this perspective, it seemed desirable to put as little as possible barriers in the way of a swift development of international civil aviation. Also, global warming was not yet widely considered a major issue hence reducing aviation emissions was not covered in the original Convention. Still, contrary to common belief, the Chicago Convention does not include a general ban on taxation of aviation fuels. Only the taxation of fuel present in a plane by the country of arrival of that plane was prohibited. Under the current EU Energy Tax Directive (ETD) fuel consumed on commercial flights between EU Member States is exempt from taxes, although it is allowed for Member States to waive this exemption through the establishment of bilateral agreements (CE Delft, 2018).

See also under Energy Tax Directive in Section 3.3.

The special position of international aviation has been reflected in the relevant agreements and frameworks since the beginning of international action against climate change.

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Emissions from fuel used for international aviation have been addressed since the UNFCCC’s first Conference of the Parties (COP) in 1995. In particular, there has been discussion on the allocation of these emissions (together with those from bunker fuels for shipping) in the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA), one of the two permanent subsidiary bodies under the Convention. ICAO and IMO have always been closely involved in the work of SBSTA (UNFCCC, n.d.). In 1996, SBSTA identified seven different options for allocation of international aviation and maritime emissions to individual countries (the eighth option being no allocation). The availability and consistency of statistical data needed to establish the consequences of the different options turned out to be challenging (CE Delft & Resource Analysis, 2000), and no agreement was reached on one of the options for allocation to individual countries.

Therefore, when in 1997 the Kyoto Protocol under the UNFCCC was adopted, requiring developed countries4 to reduce or limit their GHG emissions according to individual targets5, it was explicitly included that developed countries had to limit or reduce aviation and maritime emissions ‘working through the International Civil Aviation Organization and International Maritime Organization, respectively’ (Art. 2.2) (UNFCCC, 1998). Under the UNFCCC, developed countries are also required to annually report all the GHG emissions in their territory, through a method based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Under these reporting guidelines, emissions from international aviation (and marine) bunker fuels should not be added to the national totals but reported separately (UNFCCC, n.d.). Under the Paris Agreement, both practices have in fact been continued: international aviation and shipping emissions are to be addressed by ICAO and IMO, respectively, and should be reported as two separate entities and not be included in the national totals, as confirmed at UNFCCC COP 24 in Katowice (Poland) (UNFCCC, 2019)6.

ICAO In 1944, the Chicago Convention laid the foundation for the establishment of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). At first, a Provisional ICAO was created because of delays in the ratification of the Convention, but in 1947 ICAO was formally established and its first assembly was held in Montreal (ICAO, n.d.-b). Later that year, ICAO became a Specialized Agency of the United Nations (UN). In recent history, ICAO has sustained various pathways in its actions for environmental protection, directed at climate change and aviation emissions, aircraft noise and local air quality. Measures often address all three categories at the same time and include the support of technological innovations, optimizing flight procedures, increasing the production and use of sustainable fuels and clean energy, development of a global market-based measure and the adoption of long-term goals for international aviation (ICAO, n.d.-a). In the next paragraph we go into more detail on the instruments and policies developed by ICAO to counter GHG emissions from international aviation.

________________________________ 4 5

Formally: Annex I countries. Ranging from -8% compared to 1990 levels for EU Member States and most other European countries to +10% for Iceland.

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6

A key difference, though, is that under the Paris Agreement all countries have to report their national emissions annually, not only developed countries as under the Kyoto Protocol.

3.2

Climate targets at global level

Section Summary The 2015 Paris Agreement is the main reference for international climate action. All parties committed to hold the global average temperature increase to maximum 2 ºC and pursue efforts to limit it

IPCC The global efforts to mitigate climate change are supported by the scientific work of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC periodically publishes a series of coherent reports (collectively referred to as Assessment Reports) covering several aspects of climate change, such as the physical science basis, impacts and mitigation options, followed by a synthesis report. The 6th and so far last cycle of these series was concluded in March 2023 with the publication of the Synthesis Report (IPCC, 2023). Apart from the Assessment Reports, the IPCC also delivers Special Reports on specific issues related to climate change, such as impacts on oceans or risk preparedness. In October 2018, a Special Report on the 1.5 ºC target was published. In its Summary for Policymakers (SPM), the IPCC concluded with high confidence that global warming is likely to reach 1.5 ºC between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate (IPCC, 2018), which means there is little time left to curb emissions and avoid a large overshoot of the 1.5 ºC target.

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to 1.5 ºC. As all emissions contribute to global warming, international

aviation is not excluded from this objective. However, the Nationally Determined Contributions that parties have to submit do not include measures directed at international aviation. The main instrument covering those emissions is ICAO’s Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). Text box 2 - CO2, other greenhouse gases (GHG) and non-CO2 climate effects CO2 is by far the most well-known greenhouse gas and is indeed the main GHG emitted by planes. However, other economic sectors emit also different GHGs, such as methane (CH4), N2O (nitrous oxide) and many types of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs). In the Netherlands, the contribution of these wellunderstood non-CO2 emissions is about 15% of the total GHG emissions (PBL, 2022). The contribution of aviation to the stable non-CO2 emissions is relatively low due to the high combustion temperatures. Both their global warming potential and their lifetime in the atmosphere differ strongly. Apart from GHGs, aviation emissions also contain other elements with global warming potential, such as NOx, sulfur dioxide and particular matter. These emissions also occur at ground level from other sectors, but there they do not contribute as greenhouse gases. In the atmosphere they have chemical and physical effects which contribute to global

warming. The two largest non-CO2 climate impacts of aviation come from contrail-cirrus formation and NOx emissions (EASA et al., 2020). These are referred to as the non-CO2 effects of aviation (different from non-CO2 GHGs) and are believed to account for twothirds of aviation’s climate impact (Lee et al., 2021; T&E, n.d.). In this study, we will refer to the non-CO2 impacts of aviation where relevant but do not take them into consideration in the remaining carbon budgets. Nonetheless, these emissions should be addressed with specific additional policies.

Paris Agreement In December 2015, at the 21st COP of the UNFCCC in Paris, a far-reaching international treaty on global climate action was established among almost all countries of the world, since then referred to as the ‘Paris Agreement’ (UN, 2015). This agreement is legally binding to all the parties that ratified it, including all EU Member States as well as the EU itself. Its most well-known provision, already quoted in the Introduction, is the overall objective to hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2 ºC above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit this increase to 1.5 ºC. Text box 3 - Climate neutrality target in the Paris Agreement The main objective in the Paris Agreement is formulated as a temperature target in Article 2: the average global temperature should be limited to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels at the most and preferably to 1.5 °C. In the Introduction, some examples were given on what difference this 0.5 degree could make in terms of impacts on nature and

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human beings. Contrary to common belief, the Paris temperature target is not linked to a specific year, 2050 or otherwise, and is instead referred to as a ‘long-term target’. As a means to achieve the long-term temperature target, the Agreement also includes a climate neutrality target in Article 4. There, parties declare to reach a global peak in GHG emissions as soon as possible and initiate a strong decrease in emissions afterwards, such that in the second half of this century a balance should be achieved between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks. Since then, it became clear that to keep the 1.5 degree target within reach, climate neutrality should be achieved well before the end of this century. Indeed, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that in model pathways with no or limited overshoot of 1.5 ºC, global net anthropogenic CO2 emissions reach net-zero around 2050 (IPCC, 2018). It should be realised though, that whether the global temperature will be limited to 1.5 (or 2) ºC, depends on the cumulative amount of GHGs that are emitted before net zero is reached, rather than on the moment in time when this happens. In other words, the reduction pathway is essential for the climate outcome.

Since the establishment of the Paris Agreement, many companies, organizations, countries and the EU as a whole committed themselves to reach ‘climate neutrality’ or ‘net zero emissions’, mostly to be achieved in 2050 but in some cases earlier or later.

The working mechanism of the Paris Agreement is based on national climate mitigation policies that are put forward in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are mandatory for all parties to submit. These documents are to be reviewed periodically and should reflect an increasing level of ambition over time. Every five years (starting in 2023) a so-called global stocktake is organised to determine whether all NDCs add up to be on track for the long-term temperature target.

NDCs do in principle only address domestic emissions, including those resulting from domestic aviation. It is not mandatory for the NDCs to also cover emissions from international aviation, although the EU has chosen to include in its initial NDC emissions from outgoing flights starting in the EU (EC, 2020). This means that the Paris Agreement does not impose obligations on its Parties related to the reduction of international aviation emissions, which are covered by ICAO as explained in the previous section. However, it is not entirely correct to state that aviation is out of the scope of the Paris Agreement (see Text box 4). Text box 4 - Aviation in the Paris Agreement Aviation is not mentioned specifically in the text of the Paris Agreement, and there has been some debate on whether this means they are outside its scope (T&E, 2021). Looking at the central objective of the Paris agreement though - limiting the global temperature – no economic sector should be considered outside its scope, as global temperature depends on all GHGs emitted, regardless of their origin. Moreover, the parties to the Agreement commit themselves to undertake ‘economy-wide’ reduction efforts (UN, 2015).

However, in the current understanding Nationally Determined Contributions, the basis of the Agreement’s working mechanism, are limited to include measures directed at mitigating emissions taking place within the country’s own territory

________________________________ 7

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Responsible for at least 10,000 tons of annual CO2 emissions from international flights.

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(including domestic flights), while mitigating actions in international aviation are left to ICAO, as explained in Section 3.2.

ICAO Instruments CORSIA In 2016, ICAO adopted the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) as a global market-based measure to address CO2 emissions from international aviation. In particular, CORSIA was developed as an instrument to implement the Carbon Neutral Growth target ICAO agreed on in 2013 (Climate Action Tracker, n.d.). Under CORSIA, all eligible airlines7 have to report their emissions from international flights since 1 January 2019. From 2021 on, flights between states that participate in CORSIA are additionally subject to offsetting requirements. This means that emissions above the CORSIA baseline are compensated by purchasing the corresponding amount of carbon credits (IATA, 2023), see also Text box 5. This means that emissions above the CORSIA baseline are compensated by purchasing the corresponding amount of carbon credits (IATA, 2023), see also Text box 5.

Text box 5 – The role of offsets

the aviation sector – that more needs to be done to curb aviation emissions, including the reduction of the number of flights.

Currently many airlines offer the possibility to offset or ‘compensate’ the CO2 emissions of their flight by purchasing some kind of carbon credits. Also, under the CORSIA mechanism

-

Financial resources dedicated to creating offsets cannot be used for measures

airlines are required to offset the emissions that result from their flights above a certain

leading to emission reductions in aviation, such as the development of SAF,

threshold.

or for proper CDR projects, thus decelerating the transition of the aviation sector.

In this study, we take the climate mitigation impact of offsets before 2050 as zero and we

The upscaling of sufficient SAF production for a significant share in the fuel mix will

consider offsets as a barrier to useful climate action in aviation, for the following reasons:

take a long time (see also Section 3.3 on the EU’s blending obligation), therefore

-

measures such as SAF uptake need to be kickstarted on a short term.

Offsets do not meet the requirements of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR). CDR is necessary to achieve climate neutrality in 2050 according to all IPCC scenarios,

In this study, (limited) negative emissions in other sectors are considered to compensate

by compensating for the so-called residual emissions. To do so, CO2 needs to be

for the remaining emissions from aviation after 2050. These have to be fully additional

physically extracted from the atmosphere and permanently stored, and emissions

and high quality. In case CDR would become a cost-efficient technology on large scale way

associated with the capture and storage process need to be taken into account

before 2050, this could make offsets a viable option before 2050. However, we advise not

(Tanzer & Ramirez, 2019). To do so, CO2 needs to be physically extracted from the

to rely on the required uncertain technological breakthroughs when allocating a carbon

atmosphere and permanently stored, and emissions associated with the capture and

budget to the aviation sector.

storage process need to be taken into account (Tanzer & Ramirez, 2019). Offsetting projects often involve temporal storage (for instance in trees), do not take into account associated emissions and/or claim to realize emission avoidance or emission reduction, which is not the same as CDR. Emission avoidance or reduction does not involve physical removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and is often not additional (i.e. it would also happen without the offset credits being sold). Also, even reductions from avoided-deforestation projects turn out to be substantially lower than claimed (West et al., 2023). Therefore, any claim by offsetting projects to compensate for residual aviation emissions should not be granted (CE Delft, 2023). -

The use of offsets creates an unjustified impression that the emissions hence the climate impact of a flight truly have been compensated for – which is not the case for the arguments presented above. This hampers awareness – by both the public and

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The CORSIA baseline equals the 2019 aviation emissions covered by CORSIA for the years 2021-2023 and 85% of 2019 emissions from 2024 until the end of the scheme in 2035. Offsetting is described as an action by a company or individual to compensate for emissions by financing emission reductions elsewhere. Certain criteria apply to the projects and activities that are eligible under the CORSIA offsetting requirements, such as additionality, the establishment of a baseline against which the emission reduction or avoidance is measured, procedures to prevent double counting and safeguards to prevent negative environmental and social effects (IATA, 2023).

As also indicated in Text box 5, this type of projects often does not truly compensate for the aviation emissions it offsets, as the CO2 emitted by the flights involved is not removed from the atmosphere. While this amount of CO2 certainly continues to strengthen the anthropogenic greenhouse gas effect, the additionality, quality and permanence of the reduced or avoided emissions associated with the offsetting projects cannot be guaranteed. Apart from offsetting projects in other economic sectors, CORSIA also allows offsetting through the use of CORSIA eligible fuels, which include Sustainable Aviation Fuels and Low-Carbon Aviation Fuels. The criteria for both types of fuels are defined by ICAO, which means a fuel considered a SAF under CORSIA is not necessarily a SAF under the EU’s RED3 (see Section 3.3) (ICAO, 2022). During CORSIA’s pilot phase (2021-2023) and first phase (2024-2026), participation is on a voluntary basis. The second phase (2027-2035) applies to all Member States, but there are two types of exemptions from the offsetting requirements. States whose individual share in international aviation is very limited8 and states that are socio-economically less developed9 are not required to participate in the second ________________________________ 8

Operationalised by two criteria: the state should have a share of less than 0.5% of total Revenue Tonne Kilometers (RTKs) in 2018 and/or should not be part of the list of states responsible for 90% of total RTKs, when sorted from highest to lowest individual RTKs.

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phase, but can still do so voluntarily (ICAO, 2022). This means that probably not all global aviation emissions will be regulated by CORSIA, hence its baseline (from which sector growth should be climate neutral according to the Carbon Neutral Growth target) cannot be considered an absolute one.

Long-Term Global Aspirational Goal (LTAG) Apart from the development of a global market-based mechanism, which resulted in the launch of CORSIA in 2016, another strand of prolonged debate within ICAO relates to a long-term climate goal for aviation and came to an (temporary) end in 2022. At the 41st ICAO Assembly, a Long-Term Global Aspirational Goal (LTAG) for aviation of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 was adopted. The LTAG does not involve specific targets or commitments for individual Member States, and allows for all states to work towards the target at their own pace, taking into account national circumstances and respective capabilities. This renders the LTAG legally non-binding to Member States. The long-term goal having been set, its implementation and the pathways are now subject to discussion at working group level and will be on the agenda of the next ICAO Assembly in 2025. 9

Countries eligible to this exemption are those listed as Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs).

3.3

Climate policies for aviation at EU level

Through the European Climate Law, as part of its Green Deal, the EU committed itself to a net target of 55% reduction of GHG emissions in 2030 compared to 1990 and to become climate neutral by 2050 (EU, 2021). All EU Member States are obliged to draft National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), in which they explain how they intend to fulfil their obligations under EU climate and energy policies, comparable to the NDCs in the context of the Paris Agreement. Although there is no specific target for GHG emissions reduction in aviation in the EU, emissions from all departing flights are included in both the 55% reduction target for 2030 and the climate neutrality target for 2050. As we will see below, the EU regulates both intra- and extra-EU aviation through different policy instruments. Aviation is part of the transport sector, emissions from which should be reduced by 90% in 2050 to achieve climate neutrality (EP, 2021). In its 2021 Fit for 55 package, intended to implement the 2030 emissions reduction target, the Commission proposed several legal instruments (or revisions thereof) that act upon aviation emissions (Council of the EU, 2023c). These are the Emission

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Section Summary The EU has no specific emission reduction target for aviation but

regulates both domestic and international aviation emissions through several instruments: −

The Emissions Trading System (ETS) requires airlines to submit emission allowances for all intra-EEA flights. Free allowances will be phased out over the time period 2024-2026. The cap of allowances made available (including the ETS for stationary installations) will decrease annually and reach zero around 2040.

−

The ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation includes a blending obligation for Sustainable Aviation Fuels for all departing flights.

−

The revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED3) includes a target for renewable energy in transport, including aviation, and a specific subtarget for Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin (RFNBOs) and advanced biofuels.

−

In the revision of the Energy Tax Directive it is proposed to include aviation fuels into its scope, introducing a minimum tax rate for intra-EU passenger flights. However, agreement on this proposal is not foreseen in the near future.

For the time being, the blending obligation is the most well-placed

instrument to effectively reduce emissions within the sector, albeit imited due to the small share of SAF blending required in the coming years.

Trading System (ETS) for aviation, the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation, the recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED3), and the Energy Tax Directive (ETD). Except for the ETD, (provisional) agreement has been reached among the Council, European Parliament and Commission on a final text. We will briefly go into each of these instruments below. In CE Delft (2021) the impacts of the Fit for 55 proposals on the Dutch aviation sector were assessed.

established that after the 2025 ICAO Assembly, a review on the effectiveness of CORSIA will take place to decide on a possible future inclusion of extra-EEA flights into the ETS. Before the revision, 82% of the allowances under the cap were distributed for free, based on benchmarks11. The final text of the revision states that these free allowances will be phased out gradually over the period 2024-2026, resulting in 100% auctioned allowances from 2026 on (Council of the EU, 2022).

ETS Aviation Since 2012 aviation has been subject to the European Emissions Trading System (ETS), requiring airlines to submit allowances covering emissions from flights taking place withing the European Economic Area (EEA). Originally, the scope of the ETS for aviation was meant to include extraEEA flights as well, but following international concerns, its application to extra-EEA flights was suspended through the socalled ‘Stop-the-clock’-decision in 2013. This derogation was extended in 2016 after ICAO agreed to work on a global market-based measure to reduce aviation emissions, which ultimately developed into CORSIA (see Section 3.2) (Jensen, 2022). In the 2021 revision of the ETS Aviation, its scope was confirmed to include only intra-EEA flights10, although it was

Although the annually decreasing cap of the ETS for aviation guarantees a reduction of the number of allowances that becomes available, this does not automatically lead to a reduction in emissions from intra-EEA aviation. This is because the allowances for the ETS for aviation and for stationary installations12 are interchangeable, and therefore the actual reductions can also take place in industrial installations. In other words, the aviation sector buys allowances from other sectors. Indeed, actual verified GHG emissions from intra-EU aviation have increased by 44% over the period 20132019 (EEA, 2023). The phasing out of free allowances will lead to increasing costs for airlines, which can probably be passed on to passengers. This may lead to a reduction in demand, which could indirectly reduce emissions, but this also depends

________________________________ 10 11

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And flights to the UK and Switzerland, which are not EEA Members. 3% was put in a reserve and 15% was auctioned.

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12

In the future also for the ETS for the maritime sector, which was established as part of the Fit for 55 package and will be phased in from 2024-2026.

on whether the capacity of airports is limited compared to total demand.

However, the ETS on its own is not ‘aligned with a specific temperature target’. In addition, the EU ETS does not set specific reduction targets for aviation for two reasons:

In the longer term, the options for the aviation sector to buy ETS allowances in other sectors will diminish. Based on recent revisions, the ETS cap, which includes the stationary ETS and the ETS for aviation, would reach zero around 2040, meaning that no new ETS allowances would become available. Therefore, intra-EEA aviation emissions would need to reach zero as well, unless they can be covered by saved allowances or allowances created by future revisions, for instance related to carbon removals.

−

allowances for the ETS for aviation and for stationary installations are interchangeable, and therefore reductions can take place outside the aviation sector (at least up to 2030);

−

most of the emissions are emitted on intercontinental flights that are not covered by the EU ETS. Whether a potential inclusion of these flights in the EU ETS would lead to a reduction of CO2 emissions would depend on the number of additional allowances that would be added to the system and the reduction path over time.

Due to the recent revision of the ETS cap, the number of new ETS allowances would become zero around 2040. This implies that intra-EU flights after 2040 that combust

While the ETS currently only covers CO2 emissions, the revision stipulates that non-CO2 effects will have to be monitored and reported from 2025. In 2028 the Commission will have to present a proposal on how to address non-CO2 effects (Council of the EU, 2022).

fossil fuel (blended with SAF) would also require saved ETS allowances or created allowances. Potential (but not yet classified) options to create certified allowances could be permanent carbon storage or carbon removals from the atmosphere (direct air capture). However, it is still very uncertain if these technologies are available on large scale in 2040 and wat the consequences would be if compensation of remaining greenhouse gas emissions within the EU is not possible. Without adaption, not fully

Text box 6 – EU ETS and remaining carbon budget In Chapter 4, remaining carbon budget of global and Dutch aviation are estimated based on global carbon budgets estimated by IPCC that correspond to global temperature increases. This approach is very different from the policy background of the EU ETS.

The 2022 revision of the EU ETS itself is part of the EU Fit For 55 package, which has the goal to reduce EU’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 by 55% compared to 1990.